The Unusual Woolly Bears

Part of this is updated from a 2018 post.

Will we have a severe winter?  Or will it be mild?

In folklore, there is a belief that woolly bear caterpillars can predict the weather.

So, what is a woolly bear caterpillar and how do they predict the weather?  

You are looking at one of nature's marvels.  This is the larva of a moth that will hibernate later in fall, and sleep through the winter.  In fact, it can survive temperatures of up to -90 F (-67 C).

According to the Farmers Almanac:
"Woolly bear caterpillars turn into the Isabella tiger moth (Pyrrharctia Isabella). You can recognize these moths by their yellowy-orange coloration, black legs, and small black spots on wings and thorax. The Isabella tiger moth (Pyrrharctia Isabella) emerges in the spring."

Yes, come spring, the larva will wake up when the temperatures approach 50 degrees.  

See the orange band?  The narrower it is, the harsher the coming winter is supposed to be.

Folklore since our colonial days (prior to around 1776) has held that the woolly bears can predict the weather.  In 1948, according to the Farmer's Almanac, a scientific study was held at Bear Mountain, New York (in the southeastern part of New York State not that far from New York City) which seems to bear this out.  No puns intended, of course.

I used to think that the orange band of the ones I see were the same size each year, regardless of what the winter turned out to be.  But this year, 2020, is different.

The first several I saw looked normal, with black at both ends.  This was around October 9.

Here's another.

 But on October 21 I saw one with black only at one end.  And then I've seen a couple more since like that.

I even saw a monarch butterfly yesterday!  What is going on?